The Combine Comes Home
Why Tariffs Won’t Bring Back Jobs—But Will Bring Something Else
We’re being told the tariffs will bring jobs back.
That factories will return. That America will build again.
This is true, but here’s the kicker – long-term, it won’t bring the jobs with it.
Not the kind we lost, not the kind that nostalgia calls for.
This isn’t a return to the old ways, but a reboot to the new.
Hear me out.
Yes, we’re going to see manufacturing resurface here in the U.S.—factories, foundries, supply chains returning from overseas. The numbers back this up: U.S. manufacturing construction spending has doubled since 2022, fueled by policies like the CHIPS Act, with semiconductors leading the charge. But the work inside those factories won’t look anything like the past. Because this time, they’re not being rebuilt for labor.
They’re being rebuilt for logic.
Of course, even highly automated facilities don’t exist in a vacuum. They still create adjacent economic activity—engineering roles, system maintenance, regional supply chain integration, and some service sector growth in the surrounding communities. But let’s be honest: these are not the broad-based, middle-class manufacturing jobs of the past. The scale is smaller. The skill requirements are higher. And the labor footprint is lean by design. This isn’t industrial revitalization—it’s industrial revision.
Here’s the quiet truth:
Tariffs raise the cost of foreign goods. Think 10%-50% on imports, set to hit in 2025, making that cheap overseas widget a lot less cheap.
That makes outsourcing unprofitable.
So companies localize production. We’ve seen it before—post-2018 tariffs, some supply chains shifted, though often to Mexico or Vietnam. This time, broader tariffs could tip the scales back home.
But American labor is still expensive—and unpredictable. Unemployment’s at 2.9% in manufacturing, with 70% of firms crying labor shortages. Humans are the bottleneck.
So instead of hiring, they automate. AI-driven robots—like those Honeywell’s rolling out—cut costs and boost output without the coffee breaks.
And instead of rebuilding what was lost, they reinvent it—with machines that don’t clock out. Output’s already hit $3 trillion, 10% of GDP, with 7 million fewer workers than the ‘70s. That’s the trend line.
We’re not bringing jobs back. We’re bringing sovereignty through automation.
Factories will return, but they’ll run on agentic AI—systems that monitor, adapt, and optimize themselves in real time. Machines that don’t wait for product roadmaps or shift changes. Work that happens even when no one's watching.
Agentic AI refers to artificial intelligence systems that can operate autonomously, pursue defined goals, make decisions, and act in dynamic environments without requiring constant human oversight. These systems don’t just follow instructions—they evaluate, adapt, and execute based on changing inputs and intent.
Think TSMC’s Arizona plant spitting out 4nm chips with minimal human hands, or Palantir’s AI rerouting supply chains around tariff chaos.
It’s worth noting that this shift won’t happen uniformly. Some industries—like electronics assembly, logistics, and high-volume precision manufacturing—are riper for full automation than others. Sectors that depend on dexterity, customization, or real-time human judgment may see a slower transformation. The timeline won’t be even, but the trajectory is unmistakable.
It won’t be framed this way.
We’ll be told we’re rebuilding America.
And in a way, we are.
But not around people.
We’re rebuilding around what I call the Combine, in recognition of the impact of the combine harvester on agriculture, and how it reshaped the farming industry. The Combine is the emerging system of autonomous production, orchestrated by machines, driven by intent, no longer reliant on human labor to keep pace.
The old industrial base was labor-powered.
The new one will be AI-powered, feedback-fed, and built to run lean. Evidence says this could happen fast—5-10 years for a full shift, maybe less if tariffs bite hard. But don’t hold your breath for next year; building these facilities takes time and billions.
There will still be jobs. But fewer of them.
And they’ll go to those who can work with these systems—
not inside them. The best coders, the best engineers, the AI wranglers—not the line workers of yore.
If we’re going to live in this future—and we are—then we’d better start naming it honestly.
Because what’s coming back to America isn’t just manufacturing.
But that doesn’t mean we’re powerless. If we’re honest about what’s coming, we can design policies that help distribute the benefits of automation—investments in reskilling, local infrastructure, and ownership models that share value beyond the shareholder class. Workforce development must evolve in parallel, preparing people not just to serve the machine, but to shape the intent behind it.
The Combine is coming.
It’s the first generation of machines that don’t need us to run.
But we have a chance to shape where it goes—and whether we thrive alongside it.
Author's Note
This is the first in a series on automation, sovereignty, and the future of work. If it resonated—subscribe, challenge it, and stay with me.